Recently many fans of the New England Patriots have argued that the team should “tank” & get to the #1 draft pick in 2024 so that the Patriots can draft Caleb Williams. Aside from the problem of rooting for your team to lose, there are some issues with assuming that getting that #1 draft pick will set you up for a decade of success with a new quarterback.
Caleb Williams might be the next great NFL quarterback, or he might not. He probably won’t be as bad as #1 pick in 2007 Jamarcus Russell, & he almost certainly won’t be as good as #199 in 2000, Tom Brady. The problem is that you don’t know until two or three years after the draft whether you made the right choice, & sometimes not even then.
To shed some light on the perils of tying your hopes to using a high draft pick on a quarterback, I went through every draft since 2000, put down the 1st quarterback drafted & the quarterback who I believe to be the best from that draft year. I also put together who I think was the best player from that year’s draft class. I think that in 7 years, the 1st quarterback drafted was the best quarterback of the draft class, but in 17 years, he wasn’t. That’s over 2/3 of the time that the first quarterback taken wasn’t as good as someone who cost less in draft capital & salary. I also looked at the best overall player from that draft year. With some not determined, I came up with 2 years where the quarterback drafted first was the best player in the draft & 22 times when he wasn’t. I know that quarterbacks are incredibly important, but those aren’t good enough odds on which to stake an entire franchise’s future & definitely not good enough for the team’s management or fans to root for the team to lose.
In fairness I should add that being in the 1st slot generally means that you have the first pick in each subsequent round & there is value there. Focusing on the top pick though, it doesn’t look like it is worth as much as going on a late season win streak & building or rebuilding a culture of winning.
Here are my choices, feel free to tell me why I’m wrong. Some of these were judgment calls.
| Year | 1st QB drafted | Best QB that year | Best player in the draft | Notes |
| 2023 | #1 Bryce Young | #2 CJ Stroud | CJ Stroud | It might be too early for this, but Stroud looks like an elite quarterback instead of a rookie. |
| 2022 | #20 Kenny Pickett | #262 Brock Purdy | ? | Too soon, although Purdy at a minimum looks like the steal of the draft. |
| 2021 | #1 Trevor Lawrence | #1 Trevor Lawrence probably | #12 Micah Parsons | This might be an incomplete so far., but Parsons looks like the best player from the draft. |
| 2020 | #1 Joe Burrow | ? | ? | Probably Burrow over Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, Justin Hebert. Justin Jefferson at #22 was a great pick. |
| 2019 | #1 Kyler Murray | ? | #2 Nick Bosa | Probably Murray. A lot depends on how he plays the rest of 2023. If he looks good, the Cardinals probably roll with him. If not, they will draft another quarterback. |
| 2018 | #1 Baker Mayfield | #32 Lamar Jackson | #32 Lamar Jackson | Some would argue for #7 pick Josh Allen. We might have to wait 10 years to get the final answer. |
| 2017 | #2 Mitchell Trubisky | #10 Patrick Mahomes | #10 Patrick Mahomes | I originally put #30 TJ Watt here. Don’t know what I was thinking. Cooper Kupp at #69 & #8 Christian McCaffrey deserves consideration as well. |
| 2016 | #1 Jared Goff | #135 Dak Prescott | #165 Tyreek Hill | Goff is playing better these days, but Prescott has been consistently better. Derek Henry at #45 also deserves consideration as the best player from the draft. |
| 2015 | #1 Jameis Winston | #1 Jameis Winston | Stefon Diggs? Tough one to pick. Some short careers in that draft class. | Winston & Marcus Mariota went #1 & 2 in the draft. Neither was what the teams who drafted hoped for. Winston can still throw for 300 yards & 3 TDs at any time. He could also throw 3 interceptions as well. |
| 2014 | #3 Blake Bortles | #36 Derek Carr | #13 Aaron Donald | I went with Donald over Khalil Mack, but this was clearly a year to go defense at the top of the draft. Zack Martin at #16 was a great choice as well. Mike Evans at #7 was the best offensive player selected. |
| 2013 | #16 EJ Manuel | #39 Geno Smith | #27 DeAndre Hopkins | Smith was a bust for the Jets, but he has turned into a solid quarterback & that’s more than can be said for the other quarterbacks in this draft. |
| 2012 | #1 Andrew Luck | #75 Russell Wilson | #9 Luke Kuechly | This might be a weird pick for the best player since he only played 8 seasons. However, he was 1st team All Pro 5 times & 2nd team twice. He was Defensive Player of the Year & a member of the NFL All Decade team for the 2010’s. That’s impressive. Kirk Cousins at #102 has had a solid career that is close to Russell Wilson. |
| 2011 | #1 Cam Newton | #1 Cam Newton | #11 J.J. Watt | This was a really solid draft, but Watt was a game changer & 3-time defensive player of the year. |
| 2010 | #1 Sam Bradford | #85 Colt McCoy | #42 Rob Gronkowski | Who would have predicted that McCoy would have a better career than Bradford. He hasn’t earned as much money though. #2 Ndamukong Suh was a consideration for best player, but Gronkowski is arguably the greatest Tight End of all time. |
| 2009 | #1 Matthew Stafford | #1 Matthew Stafford | #1 Matthew Stafford | Not a great draft. The best value was Arian Foster, who was undrafted. Between rushing & receiving, he accounted for over 8,500 yards & 69 touchdowns. |
| 2008 | #3 Matt Ryan | #3 Matt Ryan | #49 DeSean Jackson | Joe Flacco drafted at # 18 won a Super Bowl, but Ryan was the better overall quarterback. Jamaal Charles #73 would be my pick for best player if he had stayed healthy. When healthy he was one of the best running backs in NFL history. DeSean Jackson might be the best player, although Matthew Slater #153, has the most Pro Bowl selections, the longest career, & the most Super Bowl victories in the draft class. |
| 2007 | #1 Jamarcus Russell | #43 Drew Stanton | #2 Calvin Johnson | Terrible year for quarterbacks. Calvin Johnson & Adrian Peterson were the best players in the draft. It was a great draft if you didn’t need a quarterback. |
| 2006 | #3 Vince Young | #11 Jay Cutler | #33 DeMeco Ryans | I think if Young had been in an offense tailored to him the way Lamar Jackson has been, he might have developed into a better quarterback. Unfortunately, he had Jeff Fisher as his coach. No sure-fire Hall of Famers in this draft. I also considered Jahri Evans. |
| 2005 | #1 Alex Smith | #24 Aaron Rodgers | #24 Aaron Rodgers | |
| 2004 | #1 Eli Manning | #4 Phillip Rivers | #3 Larry Fitzgerald (close one though) | I would go with Rivers, although there’s an argument for Ben Roethlisberger (#11) |
| 2003 | #1 Carson Palmer | Undrafted Tony Romo | #3 Andre Johnson | The knock on Romo was that he never won the big game, but he doesn’t suffer in comparison to Palmer in that respect. His completion % & passer rating were better than Palmer’s. Palmer played longer. This could go either way. 4th rounder Asante Samuel is in the running for best pick of the year. |
| 2002 | #1 David Carr | #81 Josh McCown | #24 Ed Reed | Bad draft for QBs. I went with McCown over David Garrard. James Harrison was undrafted & deserves consideration as the best player from that draft class. |
| 2001 | #1 Michael Vick | #32 Drew Brees | #32 Drew Brees | Brees over Ladanian Tomlinson. 2 great picks for the Chargers that resulted in zero Super Bowls. |
| 2000 | #18 Chad Pennington | #199 Tom Brady | #199 Tom Brady | 6 quarterbacks were drafted prior to Brady. He became the greatest QB in NFL history. |
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